As the title of the note suggests, I don’t really have anything new to say about the market. I wish I did—it would be great to “call the top” right here in these pages. It would give me bragging rights around here for a long time. But the evidence just doesn’t support making that call. Also, we don’t make calls here, so it’s never going to happen anyway.
The simple fact of the matter is that the trend is up, the trend is healthy, and the trend is confirmed. Additionally, the market is bucking seasonal September weakness.
S&P 500
The trend is up. You don’t need the CMT designation to see that. If you were an avid scholar of candlestick patterns, you’d know that last week gave us a doji—a candle where the open and close are roughly equal. After three consecutive positive weeks, this is interpreted as a pause or indecision. Bears will tell you it’s a sell signal, but it isn’t.
Source: Optuma
NYSE Advance/Decline Line
If I really wanted to stretch to make a bearish case, this is where I’d start. And in fairness, it bears watching. Yes, the A/D Line is still trending higher above the moving average. But it hasn’t made a new high with price over the past two weeks.
Source: Optuma
Dow Jones Transportation Average
The Dow Jones Transportation Average is holding above the moving average and remains in a well-established trading range. While bulls want to see a breakout to new highs, the current situation is not bearish.
Source: Optuma
Corporate Bonds
The iShares iBoxx Corporate Bond ETF (LQD) is in the process of reversing weakness from the 2022 selloff. The fund is above the rising 27-week moving average, signaling that the trend is bullish.
Source: Optuma
Seasonality
“The market is supposed to go down in September.” At least, that’s what it has done on average since 1950. September is historically the worst month of the year, but in 2025, the S&P 500 has been extremely strong (yes, there are two trading days left).
To be clear, the market has been strong when it’s supposed to be weak. Make of that what you will—but if you try to turn it into a bear case, I’m going to push back.
Source: Optuma
Final Thoughts
There’s no new bearish evidence to lean on. The trend remains up, and the market continues to defy seasonal expectations. While some indicators warrant monitoring, they don’t yet signal a reversal.
So yes, I may sound like a broken record, but that’s what the evidence calls for.
Dan Russo, CMT
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