For the final note of 2025, I’m leading with a lesson that took me a long time to truly understand. Everyone—including me—wants to be the person who “nails the top,” the one who rings the proverbial bell. Calling the top gets you remembered.
I was 10 years old when Marty Zweig called the 1987 crash on Wall Street Week on October 16th. No, I didn’t watch it live, but I know about it now. And what about the famous video of Paul Tudor Jones and Peter Borish using technical analysis to get short ahead of that same crash? I’ve watched it hundreds of times—it never gets old. Or Meredith Whitney, the bank analyst, credited with calling the Global Financial Crisis. She was a “rock star” for years, even after her disastrous Muni bond call in 2010.
These bearish calls tend to stand out more than the bullish ones. They’re remembered by those who lived through them and studied by the generations that follow. But calling the top is extremely difficult and, probabilistically, a bad idea. Markets drift upward over time. You have a much better chance of being right simply by saying, “Buy stocks.”
It took me years to internalize this, because—as many of you know—my default setting is to be bearish. And yes, I wanted to be one of those people who “nails the top.”*
But the reality is simple: new highs are bullish.
S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100
The S&P 500 closed last week at record levels above its rising 60-week moving average. The NASDAQ 100 is close to doing the same thing. Confirmation from the NASDAQ would only add fuel to the bullish fire.
Source: Optuma
Dow Jones Transportation Average
In a world obsessed with the “AI Bubble,” the stodgy Transports are quietly trading at new highs above their rising 27-week moving average.
Source: Optuma
NYSE Advance/Decline Volume Line
Record highs across U.S. equities are being supported by volume. More shares are trading in stocks that are rising than in those that are falling—a healthy, bullish dynamic.
Source: Optuma
Global Stocks
The rest of the world is at this “new high party” too. The iShares MSCI ACWI ex U.S. ETF (ACWX) posted a powerful performance last week, closing at the top of its range after holding above its rising 10-week moving average.
Source: Optuma
STOXX Europe 600
Even Europe—with relatively little exposure to Technology—is trading at record levels above a rising 10-week moving average.
Source: Optuma
Final Thoughts
New highs don’t happen in weak markets. They happen when buyers are in control—and right now, buyers are in control across the board. U.S. indices are pressing record levels, volume is confirming strength, and global equities are joining the party.
Everyone wants to be the hero who calls the top. But the data isn’t saying “top.” The trend continues to point higher.
Until that changes, staying aligned with strength remains the higher probability play.
Thank you for taking the time to read this note each week. Have a Happy and Healthy New Year!
*This was completely irrational, I know.
Dan Russo, CMT
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