Get ready, because you’re going to hear a lot about it this week. The Santa Claus Rally window opens on Wednesday. The Santa Claus Rally window is a specific period—the last five trading days of the year plus the first two of the new year—when stocks tend to do well.
Note: it is not the entire month of December. Also note: the tendency is simply for stocks to rise while the window is open. If stocks go up, that’s normal and nothing special has happened. It’s only if stocks don’t rise during the window that we should take notice.
The Next Two Weeks Tend to Be Positive
This is a seasonal chart of the S&P 500 on the weekly timeframe. Since 1950, the last three weeks of the year and the first week of the new year have been positive on average.
Source: Optuma
S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100
Both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ 100 turned in impressive performances last week, even if that’s not immediately obvious on the charts. Both major indices made late week reversals to close near the upper end of the weekly range, leaving long tails on the candles.
Essentially, the bears had the ball and fumbled on the two yard line. The bulls recovered the fumble and ran hard the other way.
All this action is playing out above rising 60week moving averages.
Source: Optuma
NYSE New Highs and New Lows
On the NYSE, new highs continue to easily outpace new lows.
Source: Optuma
International Stocks
While investors in the U.S.—with perfectly justifiable home country bias—are celebrating another strong year for stocks and the potential for seasonal patterns to add to gains, international stocks have quietly outperformed in 2025.
The iShares MSCI ACWI ex U.S. Index Fund (ACWX) saw a strong rebound off its rising 10‑week moving average last week and closed near record levels.
Source: Optuma
Spot Gold
Finally, for those who had gold on their holiday list this year… well, you already knew you’d be paying up.
After going nowhere for four years, this “diversifier” has had a monster run. The weekly chart shows the yellow metal at new highs. It will be fun to see whether recency bias has pundits calling for more of the same in 2026.
Source: Optuma
Final Thoughts
Investors wanted to enter the final two weeks of the year with risk, as evidenced by the strong reversal in U.S. and global markets last week. Breadth remains constructive; seasonality is a tailwind, and cross asset themes remain solid.
For now, the setup favors the bulls into the yearend.
Dan Russo, CMT
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